In probability and statistics, a random variable or stochastic variable is a variable whose value is not known. Its possible values might represent the possible outcomes of a yet-to-be-performed experiment, or the potential values of a quantity whose already-existing value is uncertain (e.g., as a result of incomplete information or imprecise measurements). Intuitively, a random variable can be thought of as a quantity whose value is not fixed, but which can take on different values; a probability distribution is used to describe the probabilities of different values occurring. Realizations of a random variable are called random variates.

Random variables are usually real-valued, but one can consider arbitrary types such as boolean values, complex numbers, vectors, matrices, sequences, trees, sets, shapes, manifolds, functions, and processes. The term random elementis used to encompass all such related concepts. A related concept is thestochastic process, a set of indexed random variables (typically indexed by time or space).

Introduction

Real-valued random variables (those whose range is the real numbers) are used in the sciences to make predictions based on data obtained from scientific experiments. In addition to scientific applications, random variables were developed for the analysis of games of chance and stochastic events. In such instances, the function that maps the outcome to a real number is often the identity function or similarly trivial function, and not explicitly described. In many cases, however, it is useful to consider random variables that are functions of other random variables, and then the mapping function included in the definition of a random variable becomes important. As an example, the square of a random variable distributed according to a standard normal distribution is itself a random variable, with a chi-square distribution. One way to think of this is to imagine generating a large number of samples from a standard normal distribution, squaring each one, and plotting a histogram of the values observed. With enough samples, the graph of the histogram will approximate the density function of a chi-square distribution with one degree of freedom.

Another example is the sample mean, which is the average of a number of samples. When these samples are independent observations of the same random event they can be called independent identically distributed random variables. Since each sample is a random variable, the sample mean is a function of random variables and hence a random variable itself, whose distribution can be computed and properties determined.

One of the reasons that real-valued random variables are so commonly considered is that the expected value (a type of average) and variance (a measure of the "spread", or extent to which the values are dispersed) of the variable can be computed.

There are two types of random variables: discrete and continuous. A discrete random variable maps outcomes to values of a countable set (e.g., the integers), with each value in the range having probability greater than or equal to zero. A continuous random variable maps outcomes to values of an uncountable set (e.g., the real numbers). For a continuous random variable, the probability of any specific value is zero, whereas the probability of some infinite set of values (such as an interval of non-zero length) may be positive. A random variable can be "mixed", with part of its probability spread out over an interval like a typical continuous variable, and part of it concentrated on particular values like a discrete variable. These classifications are equivalent to the categorization of probability distributions.

The expected value of random vectors, random matrices, and similar aggregates of fixed structure is defined as the aggregation of the expected value computed over each individual element. The concept of "variance of a random vector" is normally expressed through a covariance matrix. No generally-agreed-upon definition of expected value or variance exists for cases other than just discussed.

Examples

The possible outcomes for one coin toss can be described by the state space \Omega = {heads, tails}. We can introduce a real-valued random variable Y as follows:

Y(\omega) = \begin{cases} 1, & \text{if} \ \ \omega = \text{heads} ,\\ 0, & \text{if} \ \ \omega = \text{tails} . \end{cases}

If the coin is equally likely to land on either side then it has a probability mass function given by:

\rho_Y(y) = \begin{cases}\frac{1}{2},& \text{if }y=1,\\

\frac{1}{2},& \text{if }y=0.\end{cases}