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From Wikipedia

Scientific opinion on climate change

Scientific opinion on climate change is given by synthesis reports, scientific bodies of national or international standing, and surveys of opinion among climate scientists. Individual scientists, universities, and laboratories contribute to the overall scientific opinion via their peer reviewed publications, and the areas of collective agreement and relative certainty are summarised in these high level reports and surveys. Self-selected lists of individuals' opinions, such as petitions, are not normally considered to be part of the scientific process.

National and international science academies and scientific societies have assessed the current scientific opinion, in particular on recent global warming. These assessments have largely followed or endorsed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) position of January 2001 which states:

An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system... There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.

No scientific body of national or international standing has maintained a dissenting opinion; the last was the American Association of Petroleum Geologists, which in 2007 updated its 1999 statement rejecting the likelihood of human influence on recent climate with its current non-committal position. Some other organisations also hold non-committal positions.

Synthesis reports

Synthesis reports are assessments of scientific literature that compile the results of a range of stand-alone studies in order to achieve a broad level of understanding, or to describe the state of knowledge of a given subject.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007

In February 2007, the IPCC released a summary of the forthcoming Fourth Assessment Report. According to this summary, the Fourth Assessment Report finds that human actions are "very likely" the cause of global warming, meaning a 90% or greater probability. Global warming in this case is indicated by an increase of 0.75 degrees in average global temperatures over the last 100 years.

The New York Timesreported that “the leading international network of climate scientists has concluded for the first time that global warming is 'unequivocal' and that human activity is the main driver, very likely' causing most of the rise in temperatures since 1950�.

A retired journalist for The New York Times, William K. Stevens wrote: “The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said the likelihood was 90 percent to 99 percent that emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, spewed from tailpipes and smokestacks, were the dominant cause of the observed warming of the last 50 years. In the panel’s parlance, this level of certainty is labeled 'very likely'. Only rarely does scientific odds-making provide a more definite answer than that, at least in this branch of science, and it describes the endpoint, so far, of a progression.�.

The Associated Press summarized the position on sea level rise:

On sea levels, the report projects rises of 7-23 inches by the end of the century. That could be augmented by an additional 4-8 inches if recent polar ice sheet melt continues.

U.S. Global Change Research Program

formerly theClimate Change Science Program

The U.S. Global Change Research Program reported in June, 2009 that:

Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities.

The report, which is about the effects that climate change is having in the United States, also says:

Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7°F. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested.

Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

In 2004, the intergovernmental Arctic Council and the non-governmental International Arctic Science Committee released the synthesis report of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment:

Climate conditions in the past provide evidence that rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are associated with rising global temperatures. Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas), and secondarily the clearing of land, have increased the concentration of carbon dioxide, methane, and other heat-trapping ("greenhouse") gases in the atmosphere...There is international scientific consensus that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.

Statements by organizations

This list of scientific bodies of national or international standing, that have issued formal statements of

Climate model

This article is about the theories and mathematics of climate modeling. For computer-driven prediction of Earth's climate, seeGlobal climate model.

Climate models use quantitative methods to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and ice. They are used for a variety of purposes from study of the dynamics of the climate system to projections of future climate.

All climate models take account of incoming energy as short wave electromagnetic radiation, chiefly visible and short-wave (near) infrared, as well as outgoing energy as long wave (far) infrared electromagnetic radiation from the earth. Any imbalance results in a change in temperature.

The most talked-about models of recent years have been those relating temperature to emissions of carbon dioxide (see greenhouse gas). These models project an upward trend in the surface temperature record, as well as a more rapid increase in temperature at higher altitudes.

Models can range from relatively simple to quite complex:

  • A simple radiant heat transfer model that treats the earth as a single point and averages outgoing energy
  • this can be expanded vertically (radiative-convective models), or horizontally
  • finally, (coupled) atmosphere–ocean–sea iceglobal climate models discretise and solve the full equations for mass and energy transfer and radiant exchange.

This is not a full list; for example "box models" can be written to treat flows across and within ocean basins. Furthermore, other types of modelling can be interlinked, such as land use, allowing researchers to predict the interaction between climate and ecosystems.

Box models

Box models are simplified versions of complex systems, reducing them to boxes (or reservoirs) linked by fluxes. The boxes are assumed to be mixed homogeneously. Within a given box, the concentration of any chemical species is therefore uniform. However, the abundance of a species within a given box may vary as a function of time due to the input to (or loss from) the box or due to the production, consumption or decay of this species within the box.

Simple box models, i.e. box model with a small number of boxes whose properties (e.g. their volume) do not change with time, are often useful to derive analytical formulas describing the dynamics and steady-state abundance of a species. More complex box models are usually solved using numerical techniques.

Box models are used extensively to model environmental systems or ecosystems and in studies of ocean circulation and the carbon cycle.

Zero-dimensional models

A very simple model of the radiative equilibrium of the Earth is

(1-a)S \pi r^2 = 4 \pi r^2 \epsilon \sigma T^4

where

  • the left hand side represents the incoming energy from the Sun
  • the right hand side represents the outgoing energy from the Earth, calculated from the Stefan-Boltzmann law assuming a constant radiative temperature, T, that is to be found,

and

  • S is the solar constant - the incoming solar radiation per unit area—about 1367 W·m−2
  • a is theEarth's average albedo, measured to be 0.3.
  • r is Earth's radius—approximately 6.371×106m
  • Ï€is the mathematical constant (3.141...)
  • \sigma is theStefan-Boltzmann constant—approximately 5.67×10−8 J·K−4·m−2·s−1
  • \epsilon is the effectiveemissivity of earth, about 0.612

The constant πr2 can be factored out, giving

(1-a)S = 4 \epsilon \sigma T^4

Solving for the temperature,

T = \sqrt[4]{ \frac{(1-a)S}{4 \epsilon \sigma}}

This yields an average earth temperature of 288|K|abbr=on|lk=on. This is because the above equation represents the effective radiative temperature of the Earth (including the clouds and atmosphere). The use of effective emissivity and albedo account for the greenhouse effect.

This very simple model is quite instructive, and the only model that could fit on a page. For example, it easily determines the effect on average earth temperature of changes in solar constant or change of albedo or effective earth emissivity. Using the simple formula, the percent change of the average amount of each parameter, considered independently, to cause a one degree Celsius change in steady-state average earth temperature is as follows:

  • Solar constant 1.4%
  • Albedo 3.3%
  • Effective emissivity 1.4%

The average emissivity of the earth is readily estimated from available data. The emissivities of terrestrial surfaces are all in the range of 0.96 to 0.99 (except for some small desert areas which may be as low as 0.7). Clouds, however, which cover about half of the earth’s surface, have an average emissivity of about 0.5 (which must be reduced by the fourth power of the ratio of cloud absolute temperature to average earth absolute temperature) and an average cloud temperature of about 258|K|abbr=on. Taking all this properly into account results in an effective earth emissivity of about 0.64 (earth average temperature 285|K|abbr=on).

This simple model readily determines the effect


From Yahoo Answers

Question:I need some examples of animals for my science homework. Also if you can what are there adaptations to the climate change?

Answers:Many animals are affected by climate change One of the most obvious would be a polar bear. Their habitat is diminishing because when the temperature gets hotter, the ice on which they live melts. Unfortunately, they have'nt really adapted yet. It takes a while to adapt to something that epic..Also, many fish suffer because of water temperature change... hope this helped :)

Question:1. Climate change is due to the greenhouse effect and global warming. A. true B. false 2. Primary pollutants are pollutants that are emitted directly into the atmosphere from the source (example: industrial plants emitting sulfur dioxide) A. true B. false 3. What fraction of our air pollution comes from motor vehicles? A. none B. 1/3 C. 2/3 D. all 4. This type of air pollution includes dust and soot. It gets into our lungs and causes irritation. Over time, it can cause emphysema, bronchitis, and even lung cancer. A. heavy metals B. burning fuels C. pesticides D. sewage E. particulate matter 5. Acid rain is rain that has been made acidic by certain pollutants in the air. Human activities are the main cause of the pollution which causes acid rain. A. true B. false 6. Pollution can cause many health problems. A. true B. false 7. The term used to describe any unwanted chemicals or other materials that contaminate the air we breathe resulting in the degradation of air quality is _______ . A. atmosphere B. clouds C. air pollution D. air current 8. These include arsenic, lead and mercury. They naturally occur in rocks and soil. If ingested in large amounts over time, they can cause nerve damage. A. heavy metals B. burning fuels C. pesticides D. particulate matter E. sewage 9. Global warming refers to an average increase in the Earth's temperature, which in turn causes changes in climate. A. true B. false 10. Cigarette and cigar smoke is an air pollutant that can cause lung cancer, even if you are not the one smoking. Second hand smoke can be just as dangerous. A. true B. false 11. The warming of the earth due to the absorption of infrared rays from the sun is called ________ . A. global warming B. temperature C. ozone D. pollution 12. Ozone is made up of 3 oxygen molecules put together. In the atmosphere, it forms a shield that absorbs most of the ultra violet rays from the sun. A. true B. false 13. What organization's main goal is to find out how the enviroment affects human health? A. American Red Cross B. World Health Organization C. Center's for Disease Control and Prevention D. UNICEF 14. As long as you are indoors, you are kept completely safe from air pollution. A. true B. false 15. What agency started a program who's goal is to reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide, which are the main components of acid rain. A. EPA B. FDA C. CDC D. WHO E. AMC 16. When air pollution hangs over cities, reducing visibility, and is the result of chemical reactions involving sunlight, nitrogen oxides and hydrocarbons, it is called __________. A. smog B. cloud C. fog D. radiation 17. Acid rain damages _____________? A. lakes and streams B. forests C. buildings D. all of the above E. none of the above 18. What are some ways to lessen the amount of air pollution from vehicles are: A. Drive more often B. Drive faster C. walk or run to the store D. buy a bigger car 19. Pollution and it's effects can be both direct, such as cancer from cigarette smoke, or indirect, such as sickness due to bacteria found in sewage. A. true B. false 20. Common indoor air pollutants include: A. carbon monoxide B. cigarette smoke C. dust mites D. mold E. all of the above

Answers:look in your course materials, with these questions in mind. Through mechanisms still imperfectly understood, this process will cause subtle changes within your brain, with the net result of increasing the amount of your knowledge and understanding. This is called LEARNING. Alternatively, you can "do" your home work by copying what people tell you on Yahoo Answers, thereby wasting your teachers' time, and the money that the taxpayers are spending on your education. Your choice.

Question:

Answers:Please don't answer questions if you know nothing about the topic MASH. I'm sorry that fool answered your question, as it was neither helpful nor true... As to air pollution and climate change, air pollution is an incredibly broad term that doesn't coincide with global warming unless the pollutant happens to be a greenhouse gas. The more greenhouse gases (including carbon dioxide, methane, ozone, water vapor, etc.) we emit the warmer the atmosphere becomes. Yes, the greenhouse effect is good to a certain extent, in that it warms the air to a temperature that we can survive at. The problem with the greenhouse effect is that humans have added sooo much CO2 into the air that the atmosphere is warming much quicker and to much higher temperature than normal. So the more air pollution that occurs (if it's a greenhouse gas), then the faster the effects of global warming and climate change will be seen.

Question:I would like to find out your opinions on air pollution and climate change. What measures do you think would be best in fighting environmental problems? What can we do to preserve our planet? What is the gravity of the situation? Do you feel that most of the conferences held on these subjects tend to exaggerate the situation and do not address the real problems?

Answers:<< What measures do you think would be best in fighting environmental problems? >> Short term - use less, reuse and recycle where possible. Medium term - start putting right the damage we've caused. Long term - develop new and alternative fuels and technologies. << What can we do to preserve our planet? >> As above but also look at ways to remove the greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. Several such geoengineering schemes are being considered, some have been developed to prototype level, tested and shown to work. Implementing a combination of these and similar schemes could reverse the warming trend and bring the climate back to within natural tolerances. << What is the gravity of the situation? >> Much depends on where you live and the time scale. If you're in Africa or Asia things are much more serious than if you're in America or Europe. Africa and Asia have already suffered extensive loss of life, crops, land etc as a result of the effects of climate change. Europe and America can mitigate against many of the effects. << Do you feel that most of the conferences held on these subjects tend to exaggerate the situation and do not address the real problems? >> The conferences don't exaggerate the situation, the media often do. The final reports are often watered down to comply with the wishes of the Bush Administration. They're not really addressing the real problems - there's been an awful lot of talk and other then the Japanese and Europeans there's been very little action. What action has been taken is only slowing things down and isn't enough to stop climate change. That requires something much more radical and to date, the politicians haven't shown much interest. They'll probably do the same as they did with climate change which was to ignore it for many decades and only pay attention to the issue when it became critical. At the end of the day it's worth keeping things in perspective and to do this means ignoring much of the rubbish that's circulating and instead concentrate on the facts. Ignore the opinions and media reports as these are often biased one way or another, look instead at the science of climate change.

From Youtube

Climate Change :Global warming is one of the most serious challenges facing us today. To protect the health and economic well- being of current and future generations, we must reduce our emissions of heat-trapping gases by using the technology, know-how, and practical solutions already at our disposal. -A warmer world could be a more explosive one. Global warming is having a much more profound effect than just melting ice caps -- it is melting magma too. -Understanding climate change Global warming is shorthand for "climate change," and the term is correct if you realize that it's referring to the average temperature of the Earth over years and decades; not to the temperatures at particular times and places. "Climate change" is a much better term because much more than warming is involved, although the changes first begin with the globe's average warming. This average warming can cause changes in patterns of rainfall. It can lead to more snow piling up in places such as Antarctica and Greenland, and it can even include some parts of the Earth growing colder. Scientists have managed to figure out a general, fairly detailed picture of the Earth's climate going back more than 100000 years, before the beginning of the last ice age. This history shows that temperatures of different parts of the Earth, and even the Earth's average temperature, have swung widely in the past into and out of ice ages, long before humans could have affected the climate. -THE CAUSE: Global warming is "very likely ...

Adapting to climate change in Bolivia :For communities living in the heart of the Bolivian Amazon, the devastating effects of a changing climate have inspired them to work more closely than ever before. Using an ancient farming system last used in the area 3000 years ago, they are protecting their crops from worsening floods in the rainy season, as well as more severe droughts in the dry season. But to make a global difference we need world leaders to agree a climate fund to support communities across the world to avoid the worst effects of climate change. Take action at: www.oxfam.org Find out more about the Bolivian Camellones: oxf.am